Penelope Graham
15 Oct 20265 min read
It’s been an unseasonably warm fall in the Greater Toronto Area. Temperatures have routinely reached above 20°C in the afternoon, and the air has had a sticky, muggy feel.
This is part of a broader atmospheric trend known as El Niño, a weather pattern that typically occurs every two to seven years when water temperatures rise above average in the central Pacific Ocean. This year’s phenomenon is on track to be particularly strong; coined the “Super El Niño” by analysts, it’s expected to break weather records set all the way back to 1950.
That has implications for weather across the globe, causing volatile storms and flooding in some parts of the world, and drought conditions in others. In Canada specifically, the Super El Niño sets the stage for a milder-than-usual winter; in the GTA, that could translate to some soggy conditions.
According to The Weather Network, if the strong El Niño forecast comes to fruition, it could cause a less snowy, delayed winter in Toronto with more rain than is typical during the colder months.
It could also mean Toronto is in for more erratic weather patterns; fall and winter storms are very much a possibility, and temperatures could swing widely, all of which puts additional stress on your house.
Here’s a look at what the main risks for homeowners are during an El Niño, and how to counter them.
GTA homeowners already have to contend with the region’s infamous freeze-thaw conditions, but this season could bring more frequent melting and bouts of bitter cold, which increases the risk of ice-induced damage. When this happens, it causes trapped water – whether it be on your roof, in your gutters, wall brick, or driveaway – to rapidly expand. This can quickly cause structural damage, especially if it happens repeatedly over time.
The key freeze-thaw risks to look out for are:
Hairline cracks in your home’s foundation: Small fractures in the cement at the base of your home can quickly become worse when water seeps in and refreezes. Look for these cracks during your next routine property check, and fill them with a concrete repair sealant. Signs of more severe foundation damage can appear as deeper breaks in the concrete, sloped flooring indoors, and door and window and jambs that no longer fit. If you spot these symptoms, you may want to bring in an engineer for a professional inspection.
Ice damming: Any time there’s a mild stretch of weather, it’ll cause any remaining snow on your roof to melt, and the water will collect in your gutters. If those gutters are clogged by leaves and debris, that water becomes trapped, unable to flow properly through your downspout and away from your property. This becomes an issue during the next freeze, as that expanding ice can force its way under your roof shingles and work its way to your interior ceilings. The effects of this may not be noticeable right away; in fact, most ice damming becomes apparent in the spring, when signs of water damage or leaks suddenly appear in your ceiling.
Keeping your gutters clear with seasonal cleanings is one of the most effective ways to prevent ice damming, along with adding attic insulation; this will help the roof stay cold, and prevent excessive snow melt.
A slightly warmer winter can mean precipitation will take the form of freezing rain rather than fluffy snow – and that can quickly cause dangerous conditions on your property. Slick walkways, driveaways, and stairs are a slip-and-fall hazard, meaning you’ll need to keep a de-icer, or plenty of salt, on hand. Freezing rain can also cause branch breakage, so it’s smart to pre-emptively remove low-hanging or weak tree limbs before the first storm sets in.
A sharp bout of frigid air can wreak havoc on pipes, especially those along the exterior of your home, or located in uninsulated rooms such as garages or mudrooms. Make sure all outdoor water lines and hoses are drained, with any interior water connections shut off before the winter season, and winterize outdoor taps. This goes for frost-free faucets as well; make sure the interior shutoff valve is closed to prevent surprise leaking in the spring.
You can also add additional insulation to pipes to prevent pressure from building and bursting during temperature dips and spikes.
A combination of thawing snow and ice with rain can overload your home’s weeping tile and cause water to leak into your basement, especially if your home’s grading doesn’t slope away from the foundation. Not only does this deteriorate the soundness of your foundation, but leaks lead to mould and mildew growth.
Melted snow can also lead to waterlogged soil, which contributes to backup flood conditions – one of the most catastrophic and costly forms of basement flooding. Installing a backwater valve in your basement – a one-way flap that prevents sewage from flowing in when the City’s sewer is overloaded – along with a sump pump can help prevent this.
Milder stretches of weather can help save on your heating bill, but turning your furnace on and off more frequently can put added stress and increase the risk of short cycling on older HVAC systems. To make sure your furnace is in good shape, it’s a great idea to have it serviced for a tune up before the winter, when HVAC Pros tend to be in high demand and can book weeks out.
As well, if you have a built-in furnace humidifier – as many homes in the GTA do – you may not need to run it as frequently during an El Niño winter, as the damp air can already raise indoor humidity. If you notice condensation on your windows, that’s a sign there’s too much water in your home’s air supply.
The super El Niño may mean we’re all reaching for our snow shovels a bit less this winter – but there are still plenty of water-related risks to be aware of. Staying on top of preventative maintenance – much of which is part of the pre-winter routine, anyway – can help keep your home dry throughout the season, and avoid damage from surprise storms.
Need a hand staying on top of these seasonal tasks? Customize your home Maintenance Plan today. It’s completely free, and tailored to your home’s specific needs, so you never have to keep a manual checklist again.
Penelope Graham
Penelope is the Editor at Quartermaster. She has years of experience writing about Toronto’s unique housing and mortgage market, and is always chatting with Pros about their top tips for homeowners.
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